Hot Fertilizer Stocks Diverge On Guidance

Hot Fertilizer Stocks Diverge On Guidance

Mosaic (MOS) and fellow fertilizer maker Nutrien (NTR) reported mixed first-quarter results. But while Mosaic sees supply-chain issues continuing in Q2, Nutrien sharply raised full-year profit forecasts. MOS stock fell modestly overnight, while NTR stock jumped, both from key levels.




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However, FMC (FMC), pesticide leader and member of the flagship IBD 50 stock list, edged higher after hours on a solid earnings beat but trimmed guidance.

A third fertilizer maker CF Industries (CF) earnings is due late Wednesday.

All four stocks are part of the Chemicals-Agricultural industry group that is ranked No. 2 among the 197 IBD industry groups, based on price performance and momentum. The group had already been on a huge run when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sparked what looked like a strong rally.

A host of forces have contributed to a surge in fertilizer prices, including restrictions on exports from Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. A spike in natural gas prices, the feedstock for nitrogen-based fertilizer, and U.S. tariffs on supplies from Morocco have also contributed.

Now the fertilizer stocks have come down about 15%-20% from their peaks and are looking for support at their 50-day moving averages. A strong break would offer a sell signal. But a bounce could offer new buying opportunities.

So far, a number of analysts are sticking by the group because they see potential for a long earnings boom.

On Monday, Mizuho analyst Christopher Parkinson handed out big price target hikes to MOS stock (to 89 from 59), NTR (124 from 94), CF (120 from 81) and FMC (155 from 136). Parkinson sounded “a multiyear bullish call,” but kept neutral ratings as he looks for a more appealing entry.

On March 7, when CF was featured as IBD Stock Of The Day, Piper Sandler analyst Charles Neivert explained his bullish outlook.

Despite a rare streak of five great crop years, global food insecurity is rising, he said. “We’re running like hell just to stay in place.”

But the inevitability of weaker crop yields and scarce inventories suggests higher corn prices are here to stay, even after the Russia-Ukraine conflict recedes, he says.

Mosaic Earnings

Estimates: Analysts expected Mosaic earnings per share to soar more than 400% to $2.40. Revenue was seen rising 78% to $4.08 billion.

Results: Mosaic earnings leapt 323% to $2.41 a share. Revenue ran up 71% to $3.92 billion, but undershot expectations amid a lower volume of shipments.

After the close, MOS stock slipped 2.9% to 60.60. That signals a retreat from the 50-day moving average after closing just below that key level in the prior two sessions. The company didn’t offer specific guidance but said supply-chain issues “are only just beginning to abate.”

Still, Mosaic said it expects phosphate sales of 1.9-2.1 million tons in Q2 vs. 1.7 million in Q1. Potash sales should rise to 2.4-2.6 million tons vs. 1.8 million in Q1.

Nutrien Earnings

Estimates: Nutrien earnings were seen vaulting 850% to $2.76 a share, with revenue up 64% to $7.62 billion.

Results: Nutrien earnings skyrocketed 831% to $2.70 a share, with revenue up 64% to $7.66 billion.

Outlook: Nutrien raised its full-year EPS guidance to $16.20-$18.70, up from $10.20-$11.80 prior guidance and ahead of consensus views of just above $15. It cited higher selling prices, increased potash volumes, higher retail crop nutrients and crop protection products gross margins.

TR stock jumped nearly 5% overnight, signaling a strong bounce from the 50-day line. Shares closed up 1% to 99.21.

FMC Earnings

Estimates: FMC was expected to post EPS of $1.71, up 12%, on 7.5% revenue growth to $1.29 billion.

Results: EPS jumped 23% to $1.88. Revenue grew 13% to $1.35 billion.

FMC stuck to its guidance range for full-year revenue growth at the midpoint of its $5.25-$5.55 billion range. However, FMC trimmed its EPS guidance range to $6.70-$8, down 10 cents at both ends.

The company cited cost inflation, supply disruptions, foreign currency adjustment and its decision to cease operations in Russia.

In after-hours trade, FMC stock jumped initially jumped, but then pared gains to about 1%. During the regular session, FMC stock bounced off support at its 50-day line.

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